September 2, 2010
Analysis authored by Lisa LeBlanc, Forward by R.T. Fitch
ANALYSIS OF PRE AND POST ROUNDUP POPULATION ESTIMATES AND BASELINES
Several days ago we ran a “tongue-in-cheek” article about the poor math skills of a much recognized individual, Mr. BLiM. That piece was published in an effort to prime the public for the following information, facts and figures. We now have a real sense of urgency upon us as the BLM’s recent release of the 2011 Stampede schedule indicates their misguided plans to remove 11,000 wild horses from their rightful land…by the BLM’s OWN numbers that is all that will be left in the wild after their assault on the horses in 2010. There will be NO MORE wild horses, by their numbers, after 2011.
The graph, below, was compiled by our own Lisa LeBlanc and has been checked and doubled checked as the numbers come straight from the BLM themselves. It’s alarming, terrifying and there is no time to waste. Lisa’s computations did not cost $1.5 million dollars nor did it take 1.5 years to complete. They are real time, in your face and for your immediate review and action. Below the chart is a break down of the analysis. (Click on graph to enlarge)
The Table’s average yearly percentage increase of Wild Horse & Burro population estimates exceed the Bureau of Land Management’s assertion of basing their Published Estimates on a 20% per annum reproductive rate. This table shows, averaged over the period from 2000 – 2010, an annual increase based on year to year Pre-Roundup Population increases, of 32.76% per year.
The total Wild Horse & Burro populations removed from the range are based on information published by the Bureau of Land Management.http://www.blm.gov/public_land_statistics/index.htm. The total animals removed for 2000 – 2010, as of 8/4/2010, are 101,052. The estimated population increase for the same period, based on published Pre-Round Up totals, is 84,056. Roundups have exceeded estimated population increases by 16,996, further calling into question the Bureau’s assertion of 38,400 Wild Horses & Burros for 2010 (31,628, post-round up as of 8/4/2010) as a highly optimistic and unrealistic estimate.
Published commentary by various officials of the Bureau of Land Management have stated that 2007 had been the only year where populations of Wild Horses and Burros came closest to what their combined ranges could theoretically support (27,000). However, this Table shows clearly, in post-roundup Baseline populations, Wild Horse & Burro populations fell below 27,000 in years 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2007, and were only slightly above in 2003, 2004 and 2008.
Round Ups from 2001 – 2006 removed the highest numbers of Wild Horses & Burros, averaging over 11,000 per year during that period, for a total of 66,235. However, from 2007 – 2009, this trend plummeted, removing a total of 19,414, an average of 6,471 per year for that period. Populations increased for the 2007 – 2009 period, based on estimates, by 29,251. Had the 2001 – 2006 trend continued, Wild Horse and Burro populations would now be below zero.
There were no published materials available for this Table that take into consideration On the Range Mortality, for example, Infant Mortality, Predation, Natural, Environmental or Illegal Causes – essential components in estimating Wild Horse and Burro populations more accurately.
(Analysis authored by Lisa LeBlanc, Aug 31, 2010)